With thousands marching on the streets of Cardiff last week, is Welsh independence finally entering the political mainstream?
“Wales is waking, rising, rejecting second-class status to claim our place as an equal among the nations of Europe and the rest of the world.”
Leader of Plaid Cymru, Adam Price’s passionate words are met with thunderous applause by the crowd of thousands gathering at the Hayes, Cardiff.
Holding their flags high, they begin to sing the national anthem: Gwlad, Gwlad, pleidiol wyf i’m gwlad. (“I am faithful to my country.”)
They sing with such passion that it almost feels as though the whole country is united – as if independence is the will of all Welsh people – but is this the case? Is independence becoming a more favourable option for the Welsh people?
‘The tipping point’
11 May, 2019, saw the first ever march for Welsh independence, with thousands taking to the streets of Cardiff to show their passion and support for the cause.
Many were shocked by the sheer number of participants, with some feeling that this was proof that notion of an independent Wales has finally burst out into the mainstream.
An independent Wales is an inevitability. The question is when it will happen.
Llywelyn ap Gwilym, All Under One Banner Cymru
All Under One Banner is a movement which works both in Wales and in Scotland which focuses on organising marches and processions in support of independence for both countries. Founded in Scotland in 2014, its Welsh branch takes inspiration from its Celtic cousins, as well as working together in order to attract support for the independence movement.
At the march, Welsh, Scottish and even Catalan flags were waved by supporters, showing support for an independent Wales on an international level.
“We had hoped to see a turnout in the thousands,” says Llywelyn, “and we weren’t disappointed. There is an increasing realisation that independence is normal.”
Llywelyn cites the Scottish referendum as a point of inspiration for the Welsh independence movement, as well as the recent independence referendum in Catalunya.
“If you take these two countries as examples,” he says, “they reached a tipping point where the support explodes. We’re clearly behind those two countries, but it feels like something is changing – the mood has altered over the past few months and we could be close to our own tipping point.”
But what exactly are these tipping points for the Welsh population? What has motivated and inspired them to seek out independence?
Siôn Jobbins from YesCymru feels that it is Brexit that has ignited a passion in the Welsh population. “Brexit was essentially rooted in English nationalism – leaving the EU didn’t have to be the embodiment of Anglo-British nationalism, but that’s what it became.” he says.
YesCymru is another activist group which campaigns for Welsh independence, who seek to improve the way in which Wales is governed.
“The Brexiters’ discussions about ‘taking back control’ and ‘defending our culture’ made members of the Welsh public think ‘Well, why don’t we take power back from Westminster and defend the Welsh language and culture?’” says Jobbins.
Many supporters of Welsh independence would perhaps hesitate to draw such similarities between their movement and Brexit, but Jobbins feels strongly that the EU was a source of support for Wales, whereas Westminster is less so.
“Westminster is built on deceit, bullying and threats.” says Jobbins. “After 700 years of Westminster rule, Wales is one of the poorest countries in Western Europe, whilst an independent Ireland has thrived after being free from Westminster.”
Too poor, too small?
This idea of comparing the independence movement to those who supported Brexit is often used in arguments against Welsh independence, with some arguing that the desire to leave the UK is all too similar to that of leaving the EU.
“It’s hard to keep up with Plaid Cymru,” says Welsh Conservatives leader, Paul Davies, “One week they’re calling for more certainty, the next they want complete economic chaos. Wales voted to leave the European Union, not the United Kingdom, yet this party tries to keep Wales in the EU, and drag it out of the UK? This seems a bit hypocritical to me.”
It seems although YesCymru is growing in members and the independence movement grows stronger than ever before, there are still some who fundamentally disagree with the idea of leaving the UK.
The main arguments against Wales becoming an independent country are usually regarding the size of the country and its economic situation.
“An independent Wales would be poorer with a combination of higher taxes and poorer public services.” says Mike Hedges, AM for Swansea East.
“There are also additional costs with creating a new country,” says Hedges, “such as embassies across the world, creating foreign policy and defence against terrorist attacks which will all be greater than we currently pay as our UK share.
However, Plaid Cymru leader, Adam Price, looks over the Irish sea for inspiration as to how an independent Wales could thrive.
Ireland was where Wales is now, at the bottom of the economic league table, before it got its independence.
Adam Price
“Ireland has been able to get the best of both worlds, primarily by getting support from the European Union in cohesion fund money, which it was then able to invest principally in its own infrastructure.” says Price.
Price sees Ireland not only as an example of how independent countries can economically thrive, but of how these countries specifically thrive because they’re a part of the European Union.
“The Republic of Ireland, as a small nation, has been treated in the European Union, with respect, feted with solidarity and support by all the other members.” says Price. “Compare and contrast that with the way Wales has been treated over the last three years within the so called United Kingdom – completely ignored.”
Professor Calvin Jones of Cardiff University’s School of Business suggests that independence for Wales would be a difficult move for the country economically. “They would either need to invent a new economy that captured much more value locally, which would be legally, politically and behaviourally incredibly difficult.” says Jones. “Or to go cap-in-hand to Brussels as a poor new EU accession country and put up with continued but perhaps more benign statism.”
It seems that independence won’t come without its difficulties, although its supporters seem more determined than ever of realising their vision.
Moving forward
Despite the obstacles facing Welsh independence, how do supporters intend to keep up the momentum surrounding this campaign?
“YesCymru activists have stepped up their game,” says Llywelyn. “New groups such as the Welsh Football Fans for Independence are driving the message to a new audience, and Plaid have put independence firmly in the centre of their raison-d’etre, which reinforces the perception that the movement is growing.”
“All Under One Banner will likely continue to organise marches and rallies across the country,’” says Llywelyn.
The movement will grow. It will get louder. We’ll continue to make the case to win people’s hearts and minds.
Llywelyn
YesCymru only intend to move forward too, starting an online campaign to reach 10,000 signatures for Welsh independence, and forming local groups all across Wales every day.
“Wales can be much better than this.” says Jobbins. “But Wales’ young people must take responsibility over our own futures. If not us – who? If not now – when?”
